Big Creek, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

993
FXUS66 KHNX 041744
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1044 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Wind Advisories and a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through
Monday for the Kern River Valley, Indian Wells Valley, and
Mojave Desert. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Desert Slopes in
effect through Tuesday morning.

2. 15 to 35 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra
Nevada Monday, decreasing to 10 to 15 percent on Tuesday. 5 to
15% chance across the Valley and into the foothills during this
period.

3. Cooler, unsettled weather until Tuesday with snow above
7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada.

4. Warm up anticipated late this weekend into early next week
with high confidence for at least Moderate Heat Risk in the
valley areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low pressure system is currently positioned over the
central California coast resulting in cool, cloudy conditions
over the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada this morning. Due to
the low`s location, winds over the region are flowing from the
east-southeast. Ample moisture associated with the system is
moving across warmer ground in Mono County, developing a few
scattered showers which are expected to track into the central
Sierra Nevada, mainly around Yosemite NP. As afternoon
temperatures warm over this area, these showers have the
potential to strengthen into thunderstorms with probabilities
for this area sitting around 25 to 30 percent today. A few of
these showers may track into the surrounding foothills, and as
such there is around a 15 to 20 percent probability, though
chances diminish considerably into the valley areas. Snow levels
around 7,000 feet with this system will bring additional
snowfall accumulations to these areas, albeit with 72 hour
totals only up to an inch at these elevations; the highest
elevations of the Sierra an expect to see an additional three to
five inches.

This system will continue to bring stronger winds to the desert
areas as well as the mountainous areas of Kern County today.
Through 11 PM tonight, there is an 80 to 90 percent probability
for maximum wind gusts to exceed 40 mph in the Mojave Slopes
including Mojave, Jawbone, and Walker Pass, as well as the open
desert areas including Edwards AFB, California City, and
Randsburg. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these locations
through 11 PM tonight (Desert) and through 8 AM tomorrow
(Slopes). Additionally, a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect
for Lake Isabella until 11 PM tonight due to wind gusts up to 40
mph as well.

This low pressure system will gradually track into southern
California and Arizona tomorrow before being absorbed by a
longwave trough moving through the eastern half of the country
on Wednesday. At that time and trough the remainder of the week,
a high pressure ridge will build in over central California and
strengthen into the weekend and early next week. A warming
trend will take hold as a result, with afternoon highs near
season averages on Wednesday, but warming close to ten degrees
above average on Saturday. The trend will continue into next
Monday, at which point highs will be approaching twenty degrees
above average, in large part due to the center of the ridge
moving directly over north central California and western
Nevada. For Monday, there is a 70 to 80 percent probability for
maximum temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley, leading to Moderate Heat Risk expected across the area
with a few isolated pockets of Major Heat Risk.



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.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central
California, except in and near thunderstorms, where MVFR and IFR
conditions can be expected. Surface Wind Gusts G35KT expected across
the Tehachapi Range and Mojave Desert through 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339.
&&

$$

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